I’ve been following the developments around Ozempic and GLP-1 drugs with some interest for a while, and last week Eli Lilly launched its variant, Mounjaro, in India. Remember, India has the highest number of diabetics, and if current trends hold, 30%+ of Indians will be obese. I don’t think we have a good understanding of the second-order effects of these weight loss drugs, but so far, the effects people are reporting are remarkable.

The obvious effect is that people can lose 15-20% of their weight, as long as they keep taking the drug. But I’ve also read that the drug can potentially reduce addictive tendencies and compulsive behaviors like alcoholism, smoking, gambling, and so on. There’s some evidence to show that these drugs can reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases, dementia, and Alzheimer’s; improve mental health; and so on. I don’t know if all of these things are true, and it’s early days. But even if half of what’s being reported is true, then this will be the closest thing we’ve seen to a miracle drug.

So far, not many people are taking them; even in the US, only about 6% of the people are taking these drugs. With just this, FMCG companies like Walmart are saying that these drugs are affecting purchasing behavior. What would happen if more people started taking these drugs? We’ll have an across-the-board effect on every single industry.

People will eat less, smoke less, buy less, and live longer. They’ll also trade less? 😬 Insurance premiums have to change, and annuity payouts in pensions will have to be readjusted. What we don’t know is more than what we know about these drugs at this point. Also, the patents on the active ingredient in this drug is expiring in 2026, which means, cheaper generics will be available. Is the world ready for this?

We wrote a little about this in the Daily Brief on Markets by Zerodha

Check the video here.

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