While the broader markets have gone nowhere, the primary market (IPOs, OFS, and FPOs) is red hot. By capital raised, this year is already on track to match, if not surpass, the last two years. And there’s a big pipeline of IPOs coming up.

Even at Zerodha, there’s been a big spike in IPO applications, including people opening accounts just to apply.

If you’re hoping to make easy money from IPOs, the second chart should give you some sense of the odds. It shows the distribution of listing gains over the last few years. Roughly 74–80% of IPOs opened above their issue price, but a good chunk of them didn’t exactly deliver spectacular gains.

In the latest period, 35% opened just 0–10% higher, while about 26% opened below the issue price.

By the way, the one thing this chart doesn’t show is that the more popular the IPO, the lower your odds of actually getting an allotment.

But hope, I guess.

Go to link →