By 2039, every Indian state will fall below the replacement fertility rate, with Bihar being the last to cross this milestone. The evidence shows that fertility is tightly linked to income and education. Poorer and less educated populations tend to have more children and vice versa.

The replacement fertility rate (usually 2.1) is the average number of children each woman needs to have to keep a population’s size the same over time, where new births perfectly cancel out deaths.

There’s also evidence suggesting that fertility rates are falling faster than most projections. This is a particular challenge for India, where there’s still a vast gulf between the prosperous South and the poorer North. The ultimate question is, will we grow old before we grow rich?

Chart from Data for India.

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